Following the recent publication of the Global Risks Report for 2024 by the World Economic Forum (in collaboration with Marsh McLennan and Zurich Insurance Group), we spoke with the Dean of the University of Applied Sciences in Security and Safety, Dr. Luka Leško, DBA, who also teaches the course “Society and Risks” in the Professional Graduate Study of Security.
What types of global risks exist and how quickly do they change over time? How much do students at the University of Applied Sciences in Security and Safety listen to this?
Global security practice witnesses many diversifications, and the concept of security is continuously evolving. Today’s spectrum of security risks compared to the past decades is largely different and, unfortunately also more complex. The established division of risks encompasses geopolitical, economic, environmental, societal, and technological aspects. However, within each of these groups, the structure of individual risks becomes increasingly complex from year to year. As a result, the concept of security is significantly different today than, for example, during the Cold War era. The course “Society and Risks” introduces graduate students to the broader security context of today, including global risks such as crises in livelihood security, natural disasters due to extreme weather conditions, geo-economic confrontations, as well as long-term risks such as failure to mitigate climate change, loss of biodiversity, involuntary migrations (it is estimated that there will be around 200 million refugees by 2050, caused exclusively by climate change), up to terrorism, and cyber risks in the context of significant global growth in the value of digital trade. Furthermore, topics such as kinetic anti-satellite weapons on the rise, hypersonic (nuclear) projectiles, and the Kessler effect amid current upheavals in space (the estimated number of satellites for launch in the coming decade is around 70,000), as well as the consequences of India’s assumption of primacy in the most populous country in the world, after China held that position for a long time, are interesting. I am glad that I can talk to students about some topics from my own research experience gained from visiting developed countries, but also those that belong to the poorest in the world.
Can you highlight some specific examples of security risks?
There is much interesting on the global security map, which rarely reaches our media. For example, due to rising sea levels caused by global warming, the government of the Maldives is considering purchasing islands in Oceania with the aim of collectively relocating its entire population to a new location. What does this mean in a formal-legal sense? Does one state cease to exist when its entire land sinks, and its inhabitants collectively move elsewhere? There are many seemingly simple questions that are still unresolved on the global level today, and the world is still unprepared to systematically and effectively resist environmental risks, cyber attacks, malicious use of artificial intelligence, etc. Quantum computing is also one of the areas that leave room for serious risks in the future (e.g., SNDL attacks on critical infrastructure), as well as the development of bioweapons (e.g., pathogens capable of incapacitating the enemy’s army that can spread into a pandemic).
What makes the year 2024 unique in terms of risks?
The Global Risk Report for 2024 primarily highlights mass casualties, from Sudan to Gaza and Israel. The end of the Russian attack on Ukraine is not yet in sight. Furthermore, comprehensive social consequences of SARS-CoV-2, inflation, record heatwaves (e.g., the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon), droughts, forest fires, and floods in various regions, as well as poverty, social polarization, violent protests, unrest, and strikes. Additionally, there is rapid technological advancement, which is not always accompanied by adequately prepared legislation. The issue of increasing, as well as demographic population structure, when it comes to assimilation into a specific society, should not be overlooked. However, it is particularly interesting that the greatest global risk in the short term is highlighted as the problem of misinformation, which can radically disrupt electoral processes, including their legitimacy. In this context, there is growing distrust in information, media, and governments, which can lead to civil unrest and conflicts, with the risk of repression and erosion of rights. It is worth noting that in the next two years, almost three billion people will participate in elections (India, USA, UK, Mexico, Indonesia…). Of course, such issues then exceed purely domestic issues. In the long term, environmental risks overwhelmingly prevail. India has committed to reaching 50% renewable energy by 2030. Furthermore, 104 countries have committed to reducing methane emissions by 30% by 2030 (methane accounts for 30% of total historical global warming). A total of 141 countries have promised to completely halt deforestation by 2030 (which represents about 91% of the total global forest area). Therefore, I emphasize the importance of studying environmental protection, which is already unquestionably important and is expected to become even more critical in the coming years. Supporting this notion are expert estimates that suggest around 40 million jobs will be created in the renewable energy sector alone by 2050. In conclusion, the spectrum of security risks as we know them today is significantly more complex than it was several decades ago, and further complexity is expected in the future, reflecting the importance of continuous interdisciplinary research in the field of security.